Entman 1993 · Framing Theory · Journal of Communication Wang et al. 2015 · MRP forecasting · IJF ISTAT Permanent Census 2021 · 71M observations · 139 constituencies Eligendo OpenData · Ministry of Interior · 2022 elections ITANES 2022 · N=4,696 · Italian National Election Studies mySociety · Civic Technology · Democratic Infrastructure NGI Zero · Internet Commons · Open Infrastructure Entman 1993 · Framing Theory · Journal of Communication Wang et al. 2015 · MRP forecasting · IJF ISTAT Permanent Census 2021 · 71M observations · 139 constituencies Eligendo OpenData · Ministry of Interior · 2022 elections ITANES 2022 · N=4,696 · Italian National Election Studies mySociety · Civic Technology · Democratic Infrastructure NGI Zero · Internet Commons · Open Infrastructure
Open Civic Infrastructure · Italy · 2026

Transparent communication.
Grounded in public data.

PoliSim is an open civic technology platform that connects official census data (ISTAT, Eurostat), verifiable institutional values — statutes, charters, constitutions — and AI with declared limitations, to help NGOs, civic bodies, and democratic institutions communicate coherently and measurably.

Built on the principle that public-interest communication must be anchored to verifiable public data, not proprietary datasets or opaque models. Designed to be replicated across jurisdictions.

71M
ISTAT 2021 observations · age, education, employment, income
139
Constituencies covered · Camera uninominal
±4.3pp
MRP out-of-sample RMSE · Lombardia 2023 backtest

The Problem

Civic organisations communicate
without data infrastructure.

NGOs, trade unions, municipalities, and civic movements invest significant resources in communication campaigns without systematic tools to verify whether their messages are coherent with their stated values, or appropriate for the demographic reality of their target constituency.

Meanwhile, political actors have access to sophisticated (and opaque) micro-targeting tools. The asymmetry is structural — and it compounds existing democratic inequalities.

"The question is not whether AI will be used in democratic communication — it already is. The question is whether civic organisations will have access to transparent, accountable tools that work in the public interest."

€0
Cost of public data
infrastructure used
100%
Official open data sources
(ISTAT, Eligendo, IRPEF)
4
Entman framing dimensions
scored per message
0
Private data collected
from citizens

The Platform

Three verticals.
One infrastructure.

The same open data, the same methodology, the same transparent AI layer — calibrated for three distinct civic contexts.

01 · NGOs & Advocacy
Values-coherent communication

Test campaign framing against your organisation's statute and declared values before investing in outreach. Legacy giving, corporate partnerships, public advocacy — each scored on Entman's four dimensions with demographic data from ISTAT 2021.

02 · Civic Bodies & Trade Unions
Institutional message optimisation

Municipalities, trade unions, citizen associations: verify that your public communication reflects your institutional mandate and resonates with the real demographic profile of your territory — not assumptions.

03 · Political Consultants
Electoral intelligence + MRP

Bayesian MRP simulation across 147 Camera and 74 Senato uninominal constituencies. Dual-majority verification. Message coherence scoring per constituency. The gold standard of electoral forecasting, accessible.


Design Principles

Built as
internet commons.

PoliSim is designed around the principles that NGI Zero and the civic tech community have identified as necessary for trustworthy public-interest AI.


Technical Architecture

Open methodology,
verifiable stack.

Data Sources
ISTAT Permanent Census 2021 — 71M observations, 130 variables per census section, 139 Camera constituencies covered

Eligendo OpenData — Ministry of Interior electoral results, 2022 general election, 147 uninominal Camera + 74 Senato

IRPEF 2024 — Municipal fiscal data, income distribution by bracket

ITANES 2022 — Italian National Election Studies panel, N=4,696, DOI: 10.13130/RD_UNIMI/JV77WR
Analytical Models
Stage 1 — Electoral Simulation
Ridge Regression + Random Forest ensemble. RMSE 3.9pp on Lazio 2022 backtest (11 constituencies, R²=0.618)

Stage 2 — MRP Bayesian
Dirichlet-Multinomial likelihood, PyMC 5.28.4. 252 observations (139 national + 113 regional elections 2021–2025), 54 demographic cells per constituency, r_hat=1.000, RMSE 4.3pp out-of-sample (Lombardia 2023)

Stage 3 — Message Optimisation
Claude Sonnet (Anthropic API) with Entman 1993 framing framework. 4 dimensions scored per message. Values coherence against institutional corpus.
Infrastructure
Backend: FastAPI (Python), Contabo VPS, systemd services
Frontend: Static HTML/JS, Vercel deployment, Cloudflare DNS
Automation: n8n workflow orchestration
Security: HTTPS/TLS, no citizen PII collected
Academic References
Entman R.M. (1993) — Framing theory · Journal of Communication

Wang et al. (2015) — MRP for election forecasting · International Journal of Forecasting

Gelman & Little (1997) — Poststratification · Survey Methodology

Vezzoni et al. (2023) — ITANES Panel 2022 · University of Milan

MIT Technology Review (2025) — AI in civic communication

AEI (2025) — Framing effects in political messaging

Live Case Study

Q-Italia —
eating our own cooking.

PoliSim was built by the founding team of Q-Italia, an Italian civic movement founded on 14 constitutional principles. Q-Italia uses PoliSim as its own communication infrastructure — making it the live proof-of-concept that the system works under real conditions.

The Distillatore
Automated civic discourse

Q-Italia operates a live pipeline that monitors Italian public discourse, generates responses anchored to its 14 constitutional principles, and publishes after mandatory human approval via Telegram. Every post is traceable to a specific principle. Autonomous publication is architecturally impossible.

Watchdog
AI for public accountability

watchdog.polisim.dev monitors public statements and identifies correlations with market anomalies — a concrete demonstration of AI used for democratic accountability rather than commercial optimisation. Live at watchdog.polisim.dev.

"We built the tool, then used it on ourselves. The methodological limitations we document publicly are the same ones we face in our own communication. That is what honest civic technology looks like."


For Funders & Partners

What we are building
toward.

PoliSim is currently in public beta. The core infrastructure is live and validated. The next phase requires institutional partnerships and research funding to reach its full potential as a replicable European civic tech commons.


Contact & Collaboration

Open to
collaboration.

PoliSim is open to collaboration with public sector innovation bodies, civic technology organisations, academic researchers, and international policy networks working on AI governance, democratic technology, and open data infrastructure.

Research & Methodology
Academic partnerships

Methodology review, case study requests, co-publication opportunities, validation datasets. Contact: [email protected]

Platform Access
Pilot partnerships

Free access for NGOs, municipalities, and civic bodies during the beta validation phase. Commercial enquiries and integration requests: [email protected]

Civic communication
deserves better tools.

Open data. Verifiable methodology. Transparent AI. Designed for the public interest — not optimised for engagement or commercial conversion.

Methodology → Validation ↗ Contact ↗ IT →