Transparent communication. Grounded in public data.
PoliSim is an open civic technology platform that connects official census data (ISTAT, Eurostat),
verifiable institutional values — statutes, charters, constitutions — and AI with declared limitations,
to help NGOs, civic bodies, and democratic institutions communicate coherently and measurably.
Built on the principle that public-interest communication must be anchored to verifiable public data,
not proprietary datasets or opaque models. Designed to be replicated across jurisdictions.
71M
ISTAT 2021 observations · age, education, employment, income
139
Constituencies covered · Camera uninominal
±4.3pp
MRP out-of-sample RMSE · Lombardia 2023 backtest
The Problem
Civic organisations communicate without data infrastructure.
NGOs, trade unions, municipalities, and civic movements invest significant resources in communication
campaigns without systematic tools to verify whether their messages are coherent with their stated values,
or appropriate for the demographic reality of their target constituency.
Meanwhile, political actors have access to sophisticated (and opaque) micro-targeting tools.
The asymmetry is structural — and it compounds existing democratic inequalities.
"The question is not whether AI will be used in democratic communication — it already is.
The question is whether civic organisations will have access to transparent, accountable tools
that work in the public interest."
€0
Cost of public data infrastructure used
100%
Official open data sources (ISTAT, Eligendo, IRPEF)
4
Entman framing dimensions scored per message
0
Private data collected from citizens
The Platform
Three verticals. One infrastructure.
The same open data, the same methodology, the same transparent AI layer —
calibrated for three distinct civic contexts.
01 · NGOs & Advocacy
Values-coherent communication
Test campaign framing against your organisation's statute and declared values before investing in outreach. Legacy giving, corporate partnerships, public advocacy — each scored on Entman's four dimensions with demographic data from ISTAT 2021.
02 · Civic Bodies & Trade Unions
Institutional message optimisation
Municipalities, trade unions, citizen associations: verify that your public communication reflects your institutional mandate and resonates with the real demographic profile of your territory — not assumptions.
03 · Political Consultants
Electoral intelligence + MRP
Bayesian MRP simulation across 147 Camera and 74 Senato uninominal constituencies. Dual-majority verification. Message coherence scoring per constituency. The gold standard of electoral forecasting, accessible.
Design Principles
Built as internet commons.
PoliSim is designed around the principles that NGI Zero and the civic tech community
have identified as necessary for trustworthy public-interest AI.
01
Public data only. All demographic profiling uses exclusively official open datasets — ISTAT Permanent Census 2021, Eligendo OpenData (Ministry of Interior), IRPEF fiscal data. No proprietary datasets, no private data collection from citizens.
02
Declared limitations. PoliSim publicly documents what its models cannot do: unvalidated LLM layer, expert-calibrated scoring weights, simplified swing model. Methodological transparency is a design principle, not a disclaimer. → Methodology
03
Human-in-the-loop by architecture. No automated output is published without explicit human approval. The Q-Italia live deployment demonstrates this: autonomous publication is architecturally impossible — the Telegram approval step cannot be bypassed.
04
GDPR by design. The Data Shield anonymisation tool (polisim.dev/anonimizza) processes uploaded datasets entirely client-side — zero server contact, full compliance with GDPR Art. 4.5, 89, 25.
05
Replicable across jurisdictions. The architecture is data-source agnostic. Replace ISTAT with ONS (UK), INSEE (France), or Destatis (Germany) and the system works identically. Designed for portability, not national lock-in.
06
Verifiable academic grounding. Every analytical layer cites peer-reviewed methodology: Entman (1993) for framing, Wang et al. (2015) for MRP, ITANES (2022) for psychographic profiling. No black-box scoring.
07
Watchdog functionality. Beyond communication tools, PoliSim operates a public accountability monitor (watchdog.polisim.dev) tracking correlations between public statements and market anomalies — AI in the public interest.
Technical Architecture
Open methodology, verifiable stack.
Data Sources
ISTAT Permanent Census 2021 — 71M observations, 130 variables per census section, 139 Camera constituencies covered
Eligendo OpenData — Ministry of Interior electoral results, 2022 general election, 147 uninominal Camera + 74 Senato
IRPEF 2024 — Municipal fiscal data, income distribution by bracket
ITANES 2022 — Italian National Election Studies panel, N=4,696, DOI: 10.13130/RD_UNIMI/JV77WR
Analytical Models
Stage 1 — Electoral Simulation
Ridge Regression + Random Forest ensemble. RMSE 3.9pp on Lazio 2022 backtest (11 constituencies, R²=0.618)
Entman R.M. (1993) — Framing theory · Journal of Communication
Wang et al. (2015) — MRP for election forecasting · International Journal of Forecasting
Gelman & Little (1997) — Poststratification · Survey Methodology
Vezzoni et al. (2023) — ITANES Panel 2022 · University of Milan
MIT Technology Review (2025) — AI in civic communication
AEI (2025) — Framing effects in political messaging
Live Case Study
Q-Italia — eating our own cooking.
PoliSim was built by the founding team of Q-Italia, an Italian civic movement
founded on 14 constitutional principles. Q-Italia uses PoliSim as its own communication
infrastructure — making it the live proof-of-concept that the system works under real conditions.
The Distillatore
Automated civic discourse
Q-Italia operates a live pipeline that monitors Italian public discourse, generates responses anchored to its 14 constitutional principles, and publishes after mandatory human approval via Telegram. Every post is traceable to a specific principle. Autonomous publication is architecturally impossible.
Watchdog
AI for public accountability
watchdog.polisim.dev monitors public statements and identifies correlations with market anomalies — a concrete demonstration of AI used for democratic accountability rather than commercial optimisation. Live at watchdog.polisim.dev.
"We built the tool, then used it on ourselves. The methodological limitations we document publicly are the same ones we face in our own communication. That is what honest civic technology looks like."
For Funders & Partners
What we are building toward.
PoliSim is currently in public beta. The core infrastructure is live and validated.
The next phase requires institutional partnerships and research funding to reach its full potential
as a replicable European civic tech commons.
→
Multi-jurisdiction replication. Adapt the data pipeline to ONS (UK), INSEE (France), Destatis (Germany), Eurostat for a pan-European civic communication infrastructure. Same architecture, different national data sources.
→
LightRAG persistent memory. Institutional knowledge base allowing organisations to upload their corpus (statutes, past campaigns, board decisions) for persistent, contextualised communication coherence checking.
→
Social listening calibration. Integration of public social signals for real-time psychographic segment refinement — without citizen micro-targeting or private data collection.
→
Open constituency data layer. Shapefile-level demographic data for all 221 Italian uninominal constituencies — Camera and Senato — enabling sub-constituency analysis and error reduction from ±4.3pp toward ±2pp RMSE.
→
Pilot institution programme. Free access during beta validation phase for municipalities, NGOs, and civic bodies willing to co-develop use cases and contribute to open methodology documentation.
Contact & Collaboration
Open to collaboration.
PoliSim is open to collaboration with public sector innovation bodies, civic technology
organisations, academic researchers, and international policy networks working on
AI governance, democratic technology, and open data infrastructure.
Research & Methodology
Academic partnerships
Methodology review, case study requests, co-publication opportunities, validation datasets. Contact: [email protected]
Platform Access
Pilot partnerships
Free access for NGOs, municipalities, and civic bodies during the beta validation phase. Commercial enquiries and integration requests: [email protected]
Civic communication deserves better tools.
Open data. Verifiable methodology. Transparent AI. Designed for the public interest — not optimised for engagement or commercial conversion.